College Football - Coaching Musical Chairs

The film world was saddened this holiday season with news of the passing of Ann Savage - perhaps the original Femme Fatale. 'Femme Fatale' roughly interpreted, stands for 'Fatal Woman.' Get too close and you lose your good judgment, get whacked or at least seriously embarrassed. Using the universal laws of attraction, the standard methodology includes luring unsuspecting folks to listen to seductive language and in the end, cause some really poor decisions. As college football heads into the annual period of depression known as winter, some programs will be hard at work to rebuild or to at least get dog programs to respectability. Coaching candidates offer seductive language, grand visions and in some instances, cause the hiring institutions to make some really poor decisions.

In the end, schools have to try something radical to turn losers into winners. Witness the University of Buffalo. For years a doormat program, the Bulls actually achieved an unbelievable level of success in 2008 with a bowl appearance. Even though the Bulls lost to UConn in the International Bowl, this is a remarkable turn-around for a program that in the not too distant past, was simply the laughingstock of eastern college football. Congrats then to the Bulls and coach Turner Gill. This is what one would refer to as a "good hire."

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Which coaching decisions will turn out to be the poor ones? One never knows for sure, but there are some bizarre story lines already forming on the surface of the 2009 season. Iowa State got really lucky in having its 2-10 coach hired away by - of all people - Auburn. This saved the school from itself when the Cyclone brass offered the former coach a contract extension. Racking up 2008 season wins over South Dakota State and Kent State at the beginning of the season, the Cyclones proceeded to lose everything else. Iowa State then replaced its lost head coach with native Iowan Paul Rhoads. Rhoads brings impressive credentials, a commitment to win in the state of Iowa and comes to the Cyclones from -of all places - Auburn. 2009 will see which school got the best end of this deal. Stay tuned on this one!

The Sage of College Football (your humble author) wishes Coach Steve Sarkisian at Washington the best of luck in 2009. Coach Sark probably read the tea leaves in his former position at USC and determined that his upward upward mobility would be better served by looking for another institution to craft into a winner. But Washington? The Huskies ended this past season winless - the first perfectly dreadful season for a Pac-10 school. If the Huskies turn in a few wins in 2009, coach Sark will really have accomplished something significant. Then look out for the purple dogs in 2012.

The opportunity to turn a loser into a winner will frequently override a coaching candidate's better judgment. The Sage hopes that New New Mexico State Coach DeWayne Walker made a good choice. Walker is the 33rd head coach of the Aggies and has his work cut out for him. The Aggies managed a single conference win last season and probably have the Cornhuskers, Michigan and a variety of other schools trying to get 'em on their home schedules. Should Walker get a couple of wins, New Mexico State's biggest challenge will be keeping him.

Going north from Las Cruces, the University of New Mexico also found itself in need of a new head football coach following the resignation of coach and alum Rocky Long. Never a powerhouse in the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico was in need of a recruiting ace to lure decent players to Albuquerque. Interestingly, the Lobos managed to convince Mike Locksley to give up his position as Offensive Coordinator at Illinois to try and push UNM in the right direction. This will take quite a bit of pushing. However, among Locksley's qualifications is a top 25 recruiting rating from Sports Illustrated. Should Locksley attract better players than have previously taken the field for the Lobos and get some wins in old UNM Stadium, other programs are going to want to know exactly how he did it. They are also going to want to hire him. Both football programs in the state of New Mexico need to make generous contract extension offers should either of their new coaches appear to be getting their respective programs turned around.

Brady Hoke, formerly Head Coach at Ball State, now finds himself in the same position at San Diego State. Admittedly, SDSU could offer things that Ball State couldn't - like a beach and decent weather. Hoke traded in his #12 Ball State Cardinals for one of the worst programs going. If he can turn it around in South California, he will be one of the hottest coaching commodities going. The Aztecs also better have a retention plan in place should Hoke start winning. There isn't a task more daunting than taking over a perennial loser and turning it around - except perhaps for taking over a program that is used to winning and keeping it that way. Witness Lane Kiffen -the new Head Coach of the Tennessee Volunteers and former Head Coach of the NFL's Oakland Raiders. Here is a guy who won't miss church the rest of the year. Getting fired by Al Davis at Oakland is not a disgrace as much as it is a blessing. But then to land in Knoxville? A bowl appearance in 2009 would be the 'hat trick.' There is real pressure in Knoxville, though, and 104,000 fans will be in Neyland Stadium for every home game to apply it.

The annual shuffling of the head coaching ranks has just about ended now for 2009. The motivational speeches are being prepared for the Spring Games heralding a "new way of thinking," "a winning attitude," "putting the past behind us," and "making something special happen." These are all great speeches, and are essentially given to every college level player with the courage to take the field for a losing program. Next September, we will finally see which programs have been lured in with sweet talk of victory and which programs actually deliver. The unfortunate part of hiring coaches is that a good decision is rewarded with having to come up with a big contract extension. A poor decision puts your program right back in the dumper.

College Football - Coaching Musical Chairs

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Head Coaching Changes and Teams to Watch For The 2011-2012 NFL Season

No less than eight teams will kickoff the 2011-2012 NFL season with a new skipper manning the sidelines. In the AFC Cleveland, Denver, Oakland, and Tennessee welcome new skippers, meanwhile, four NFC teams also roll out the red carpet for new headmen in Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, and San Francisco.

Two of the eight new skippers (cowpoke Jason Garrett and viking Leslie Frazier) are actually interim HC hold-overs from last season when Dallas and Minnesota both fired their headmen prior to the conclusion of the regular season, however, both Garrett and Frazier still must be considered rookie NFL skippers as they are entering their first full season as the man in charge. As a matter of fact, seven of the eight new skippers for the 2011-2012 NFL are actually rookies when it comes to being the man in charge.

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Denver is the only team to hire a retread this season as they brought aboard former Carolina HC John Fox to control their destiny, however, it is noteworthy that both Tennessee and Oakland promoted from within as the Raiders moved last years offensive coordinator (Hue Jackson) into their HC slot while the Titans handed the skipper reins to long time player and assistant coach Mike Munchak who has 30 years with the organization. Below is a summary of two possible surprise teams from this years crop of new HCs and what to watch for:

Cleveland: The Brownies brought in Mike Holmgren to run the show prior to the start of last season, being the nice guy the ole walrus is, he gave HC Eric Mangenius a year to prove himself. Unfortunately for Eric Mangenius his Brownie team didn't show up to play for him as they lost their final four games to close out the regular season including the 9-41 drubbing in the season finale that was administered to them by divisional rival Pittsburgh and ended up with a mark of 5-11 for the second straight season.

Needless to say and rightly so, a two year record of 10-22 got Eric Mangenius kicked to the curb. Enter new rookie skipper Pat Shurmur...shur who? Although Pat Shurmur had a decent college playing career as a center at Michigan State, his name isn't one that readily comes to mind when it comes to the NFL as he never played in the pro ranks and when it comes to NFL coaching experience tollied in virtual obscurity for nine seasons as the Eagles QB coach prior to last year when he was a one-year offensive coordinator for the Rams.

Shurmurs claim to fame during his nine year stint with Philadelphia stems from the play of former Eagle QB Donovan McNabb who led his team to five NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl appearance, couple that with the play of rookie Ram QB Sam Bradford last year in Shurmurs only season with St Louis as their OC and presto....Cleveland GM Mike Holmgren loves Shurmur, hires Shurmur, and now expects Shurmur to do the same with young Brownie QB Colt McCoy.

The Brownies major malfunction last season was their offense which finished the season ranked a terrible 29th in passing yards per game, 29th in total yards per game, and 27th in points per 100 yards gained, which of course is the reason why Cleveland finished last year ranked 31st in average points scored per game (16.94). If Shurmur can fix what ails this Brownie offense then Cleveland might just be one of the surprise teams this season as their defense really didn't play that bad last year in ranking 8th in points allowed per 100 yards, 12th in yards allowed per rush and a respectable 13th in average points allowed per game at 20.75 and especially when considering how long they were on the field due to the play of the poor Brownie offense.

There will be changes to the Cleveland defense as the Brownies elected to let defensive coordinator Rob Ryan go and brought in Dick Jauron to call the shots. Jauron, who had head coaching stints with both Chicago and Buffalo, knows how to coach defense as evidenced by the statistics that his units posted while with the Packers, Jags, and Bears in previous defensive coaching stints.Most notable of upcoming change will be the alignment the Brownie defense utilizes as they will be switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3, look for the additions of monster tackle Phil Taylor (1st round draft choice) and DE Jabaal Sheard (2nd round draft choice) up front to pay quick dividends along with the return of linebackers Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong and second year CB Joe Haden.

Offensively, new HC Pat Shurmur will be calling the plays just as his new mentor and GM Mike Holmgren did while with both Green Bay and Seattle. Change will come to the offense as well with the implementation of a short quick passing game (often referred to as the west coast offense), when it comes to divisional play this change can only help the Brownie offense against defensive stalwarts Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Divisional rival Pittsburgh is fresh off a Super Bowl loss, if historical trends hold up this means that the Steelers should fail to make the playoffs, whether that happens or not is anyone's guess, however, this much I do know and that is the fact that Pittsburgh is getting pretty long in the tooth and especially on defense, a glance at Pittsburgh's roster from last season shows their players average age was 26.78 years old which was the second oldest in the league behind Washington.

The same can be said for Baltimore as their roster averaged 26.68 years of age which made them the fifth oldest team in the NFL. Cleveland was right up there as well with an average of 26.78 years per player which ranked them third in the league, the difference is that because the Brownies had shoddy records over the past three straight seasons (14-34) they were able to add fresh young talented blood to their lineup and dumped a lot of aging talent this season. Vegas has set the season win/loss total at 6.5 for Cleveland, I think the Brownies get at least to the .500 mark this season......OVER 6.5 Seasonal wins.

DENVER: After losing 12 of their final 14 games to close out last years campaign with a really overall shoddy mark of 4-12 the Denver Broncos decided to part ways with young HC Josh McDaniels and in turn hired ousted Carolina HC John Fox to take the reins. In the big picture who could really blame Denver for wanting to go in a different direction with a new skipper after McDaniels had actually managed to lose 22 of his last 26 games dating back to the previous season>

McDaniels, who lucked out to get the Denver job to begin with, was his own worst enemy with regard to player relations as he constantly seemed to cause turmoil and in the end the players simply quit playing for him. Then of course there was McDaniels dubious at best drafting of Tim Tebow the previous year which cost Denver in a very large way last year as it came back to bite them squarely in the ole behind with the lack of talent and depth on the defensive side of the ball.

Not judging whether Tebow will end up being a good acquisition or not, the point of the matter is that Denver needed help on the defensive side of the ball after finishing 26th in run defense prior to drafting Tebow. In the big picture Tebow has a questionable arm, questionable accuracy and will be a work in progress. McDaniels gave up way too much to get Tebow in the slot that he drafted him in when considering that he gave up Denver's 43rd, 70th, and 114th overall picks to Baltimore for the right to draft Tebow in the first round with the 25th pick. After drafting Tebow and NOT drafting for defensive help, what happened last season?

A check of the final stats from last years regular season reveals that Denvers defense finished dead last in the NFL (32nd) in total yards allowed per game (390.81), points allowed per game (29.44), only totaled 23 sacks (1.44 p/gm), the Broncos defense also finished a shoddy 31st in rush yards allowed per game (154.6) and 30th in yards allowed per pass. Is it really any wonder why Denver got rid of McDaniels? What raised some bushy eyebrows was the direction in which Denver elected to take with regard to the hiring of former Carolina Panther HC John Fox who himself was fresh off a league worst and truly dreadful 2-14 season.

In truth the Panthers fall from grace should not have been THAT big of a surprise when considering the fact that Carolina resided in the same division as New Orleans, which had won the Super Bowl the prior season, and with Atlanta, which was up and coming as evidenced by posting a mark of 20-13 over their previous two seasons.

Carolina simply got long in the tooth as evidenced by posting a mark of 35-30 in their previous four seasons and elected to go young by dumping a lot of veteran talent and bringing in a lot of new young faces. It didn't help any when the injury bug hit them early in the campaign and it most certainly didn't help them when young starting QB Matt Moore (who had played so well in winning four of five games to close out the previous season) suffered a concussion in the season opener and then proceeded to fall flat on his face by throwing four picks in two games.

Moore was benched in favor of rookie QB Jimmy Clausen who played no better, when Moore was re-inserted for week nine action against New Orleans he injured his shoulder and was done for the year. Moore and Clausen combined to tally a TD to INT ratio of 7 to 16 for the season and were the root cause for the Panther offense to rank a dead last 32nd in the league in passing yards per game, total yards per game, points per 100 yards gained, yards per pass and also ranked 31st in passer completion percentage and 30th in time of possession.

Needless to say, Carolina was done in by their shoddy QB play. John Fox shouldn't have that concern with the Broncos who have triggerman Kyle Orton under center and a fast improving Brady Quinn backing him up. Orton is the kind of QB that new HC John Fox likes with regard to his leadership and steady play, last season Orton tossed for 3653 yards with a TD to INT ratio of 20 to 9 en-route to compiling a QB rating of 87.5 and in his two seasons with Denver thus far has thrown for a total of 7455 yards with a TD to INT ratio of 41 to 21 with an average QB rating of 87.15. No Fox won't have to worry about the Denver offense, instead he can turn his attention to what he does best which is coaching defense.

John Fox has a pretty good pedigree as he got his NFL coaching start with the Pittsburgh Steelers back in 1986 as their defensive backs coach as well as their defensive coordinator, prior to taking over the helm as the skipper of the Carolina Panthers in 2002, Fox had also cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator for the Bolts, the Raiders, and the Rams. In 2002 when Fox took over the Carolina Panthers, they had finished the previous year with a record of 1-15 and oddly enough were remarkably similar to last years Denver team with regard to defense or lack thereof as evidenced by finishing the regular season ranking a shoddy 31st in the categories of rush yards allowed, total yards allowed per game and TOP (time of possession) and ranked 28th in both pass yards allowed per game and defensive sacks along with a 27th ranking in yards allowed per pass.

In his first season with Carolina Fox pushed his team to a 7-9 finish and in his second year took them to the Super Bowl. Can Fox duplicate in Denver the same kind of turn-around as he did when he first took over the Panthers? I think he can as the Broncos are a talented club offensively and defensively have added the needed pieces of the puzzle both coaching-wise and player-wise to make huge strides this season. Denver has a tougher schedule this season with games at Tennessee, Green Bay, and Minnesota along with home dates against the visiting Jets, Bears, and Patriots, however, the rest of Denver's division will play the same teams. Look for Denver to finish second in the AFC West behind San Diego and by doing so surpass the season win/loss total of 6 that Vegas has assigned them....OVER 6 Seasonal wins.

Take care and be well my friends

Jim

Head Coaching Changes and Teams to Watch For The 2011-2012 NFL Season

Jim Campbell runs http://www.FootballForecastor.com which has been an internet based sports handicapping service since 1997, you will be hard pressed to find another handicapper that has had the kind of success Jim has had, over the past twelve years he has maintained one of the very best winning percentages of any sports handicapping service.