If you ask the average sports bettor what percentage of their bets they needed to win in order to profit, I would bet that 98% of them would say 52.4%, or some other number like that. It is not coincidental that statistics show 98% of all sports bettors lose money. If you think you have to win half of your bets to make money, you don't know what game you are playing.
The truth is, you can win substantially less than 50% of your bets and still pocket some nice profits. If you need proof, check out Best Sports Picks Today. If you look at the lifetime history of the site, I am the All Time leader by 11 units over the number 2 handicapper and almost 20 units over number 3.
Nfl 2012
My lifetime record as of April 30, 2012 at BSPT is 70-93 (.429) with a profit of +3210 since September of 2011. Every sport, the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL has been bet during this time with equal success. The same strategy was used for each sport, and I have shown a profit every month with the exception of February 2012.
What happened in February?
Let me tell you a little story, that, had it not happened to me I would probably not believe it could happen. Still, it did happen. In February 2012, I went 0-18 in my betting for the month. That's right. I lost every single bet I placed for the entire month. I won my bet on January 31, and I won my bet on March 1, and lost every single one in between. Fortunately, I was Expert of the Month in January with +1250 units so my 20 unit bankroll was never down more than 5.5 units.
That streak is included in the numbers from BSPT shown above, and I am still by far the biggest winner. In spite of that 18 unit catastrophe in February, I am in 4th place for all of 2012 with over 10 units of profit. My record for the year is 29-49 (.371) through April, +1175.
I tell you these things for two reasons.
First, I needed to get February off my chest and fess up to the world how fallible I can be. Who would really want to claim an 0-18 record? But, since I do sell my systems and strategies, I owe it you to come clean about even the worst of times.
During that stretch, even I questioned my systems and strategies. Maybe I was just lucky in 2011. I was the biggest winner of the year at BSPT. Maybe that Expert of the Month award in January was my peak. Maybe, the thought occurred to me, that I was not as good as I thought. It took me March and April to recover the losses, but I did. My faith was shaken, but never broken.
The second reason is to show you proof that you don't need to win more than 50% of your bets to win money. In fact, you don't need anywhere close to it if you bet right. Most people do not bet right.
Carolina Capper, the current leader for the year at BSPT, is hitting 64% on 53 bets. I tip my hat to the man. He has far and away the best winning percentage, but still, he is only 1.5 units ahead of me right now while I have won only 37%.
How about for just the last two months?
DIY Sports Betting Systems
19 14 +1725
CarolinaCapper
30 16 +1260
Carolina Capper made 1260/46 = 27.39 per bet. I made 1725/33 = 52.27 per bet. That is a BIG difference in betting styles. If I were to lose my next five bets and my percentage dropped to 50%, we would be even and I would only be down to 45.39 per bet.
The point is, winning percentage is nowhere near as important as winning money. If you are betting with a strategy that requires you to win more than 50% of the bets you place to profit, you are almost certain to lose in the long run.
I submit for your consideration that it is insane to risk more than you can win on any game. Still, that is the way most people do it. They will take negative bets all the time. I have seen top handicappers pick teams at -190 or even more. They are crazy enough to put two units up on a baseball game, when the best they can hope to do is win one. And people pay to receive these picks.
Even betting on point spreads at -110 is a losing proposition in most cases. The books charge you 10% just for the privilege of betting on their best guess at what constitutes a 50-50 chance against the spread. Yet many supposedly skilled bettors do it all the time. My view is that if a team needs the points it is not worth betting on.
If you want to win money betting on sports, don't worry about trying to win more games. Instead, focus your attention on winning more money on every game you do win. Instead of churning away your bankroll on point spreads, learn to pick money line winners that pay out +150 or more.
Sports Betting Shortcut
DIY Sports Betting Systems lead you to the games that show the most profit potential, then give you the tools you need to decide if it is really a good bet.
Learn more at the link below.
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